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10 octobre 2023

Is there a “Moore’s law” for quantum computing ?

There is a common wisdom according to which many technologies can progress according to some exponential law like the empirical Moore’s law that was validated for over half a century with the growth of the number of transistors per integrated circuit. Quantum computing is supposed to follow the pack and grow inexorably to maturity. The Holy Grail is a large quantum computer with thousands of errors corrected logical qubits made themselves of thousands, if not millions, of physical qubits. These would enable molecular simulations as well as factoring 2048 RSA bit keys among other use cases taken from the intractable classical computing problems book.

How far are we from this? Less than 15 years according to many predictions. Unfortunately, Moore’s empirical law cannot easily be translated to some equivalent in quantum computing. qubits have various figures of merit that don’t progress magically thanks to some new manufacturing technique capacity. However, some equivalents of Moore’s law may be at play inside and outside the quantum realm like with quantum computers enabling technologies, cryogeny and control electronics. Algorithms,...
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Olivier EZRATY

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